Архив рубрики: texts in English

Why trend is’t your friend?

According to my concept:
all «common sense» trader’s rules and laws is a fake

further more they may be used in invert form to create a good stable working system (all common words must be replaced)
as sample : trend is your enemy: why?

it’s simple because there is no working system that allows you to stay on trend and not lose more in case of trend absence

that’s all

P.S. «nobody is your friend» — this is a best concept for work in the market and to survive in any kind of jungle


Price Flow Theory: the reliability of the configurations

In common terms it is about the Support and Resistance Lines, but in PFT it is wider and refers to the reliability of the micro (local) graphical model.

Example: scale 3 shows us sharp Amplitude Increase but lower tangent became unreliable and can’t be Support Line (and market confirms it by easily penetration through that line). But at scale 4 lower tangent is more reliable and may be a boundary of the real channel.

In general words, the last tangent in configurations with Amplitude Increase can’t be a good estimation for the channel.

«the space» is a fake

Actually there is no «space», actually in the most cases there are 2 most probable scenarios and their less probable variations. This must be already obviously for attentive readers.

The more you take into consideration the PFT the clearer will be the picture of changes in price and so it will be easier.






























few charts for May03






Price Flow Analysis — GOOG, AMZN

GOOG is preparing to jump

red lines represent two possible scenarios
(do not have enough data in Alpari MT4 to provide usual time-compressed charts, so can show only as is)

AMZN — oscillations with very high quality

and now we see that the last GAP was an simple continuation of the previous configuration, i.e. market has supposed it long before «the event»

probably the oscillations will continue for some time, so pullback is expected

S&P-500: new — 2 boundary scenarios at scale 1

S&P-500: new — 2 boundary scenarios at scale 1

remark: because of time compression, any line drawn behind the right border of the data, becomes the line in the time-scale with unknown properties. And after new data arrive and new bar appears, all lines automatically are redrawn in MT4. So all images of the scenarios are approximate. Furthermore in the spirit of PFT — all calculations must be only estimations.

Obviously that continuation has less probability than u-turn down, but everything can be and anomaly «is all around»
like love .
i like both clips

The Second Theorem SG — «theorem of oscillations»

Price flow exists only in oscillations shape: all states which seem to be «flat» are oscillations at lower scale and all states which seem to be «trend» are the oscillations at the higher scale, and the structure of all trends appears to be oscillations at lower scale.

Samples: just take a closer look at any samples for PFT, compare channels at two consecutive scales for the same «time» and you «easily» can see all flows and structures. Look so closely and so long that your eyes could see, and your brain is able to perceive it. The effect must be as it was with Neo in «The Matrix».  You will enjoy it ….

nevertheless Samples





Price Flow Theory (PFT) and the space of the scenarios

Sometime is very important to generate probable scenarios for upcoming process options. Exact answer to question: «why is it so important?», we will get later. Now let’s consider how easy and natural we can generate all possible uninterrupted scenarios using basics of PFT and Price Flow analysis (PFA) technique.

In general case «space options» for price flow has place between «to continue» or «to u-turn». «To u-turn» later and now — is (topologically) the same scenario. Obviously any channel will be u-turned somewhen. So all scenarios in PFA are (topologically) the same and difference is only in Quality of the channel and the influence to upper scales.

Please take a close look at the attached charts and try to imagine that almost all possible options are limited by marked lines.
Important that «continue» at one scale may be «u-turn» at the another.






April 20, 2012

S&P — Up with Dw potential, EURUSD — Dw with UP potential, AAPL — Dw, SBUX — Dw?, AIG — Up?






what’s new in the Zoo

for 2 days it must not be too many news just few

AAPL — it’s not «u-turn down» yet — it is a first stage of the destabilization on the way Up


AIG — all scales large then 2 are stable


SBUX — Amplitude increase at scale 2 is very important. The future scenario depends on how this destabilization will be absorbed by the main flow at scale 4.


GAZP — destabilization at scale 1 probably cause the u-turn Up at bigger scales.


GOLD — not strong but presented signs of possible u-turn Up here has not been realized. Waiting.


OIL — if flow at scale 2 will u-turn Up we can see clear destabilization and possible u-turn Dw at scale 4.


RURUSD — probably the time of the prediction is over: the process is starting to fill out the main channel at scale 4. Perspective at scale 4 is more for  continuing Dw with Amplitude decrease. Will see.

EURUSD — actually nothing new: the main flow is still Dw.


S&P-500 — as I’ve assumed 2 days ago: «easy prey» was taken and now we have more difficult «target» for «bulls» — to stabilize of destabilized flow Up at scale 2 and to continue the process at scale 3 without significant pullback. Configurations art all scale are very clear that usually means that market is under strong pressure and allow for outside observers to understand what is happening.